Analysis of Influencing Factors of Traffic Accidents in Undersea Tunnel
Yang Yong- Zheng *
School of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao, 266520, Shandong, China.
Yao Mei
School of Management Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao, 266520 Shandong, China.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
This study aims to study the influencing factors of traffic accidents in undersea tunnels and establish a prediction model of undersea tunnel traffic accidents. Through face-to-face inquiry and telephone survey, the relevant information of drivers who had traffic accidents in Jiaozhou Bay undersea tunnel from 2018 to 2019 was obtained, and the relevant information of citizens passing through Jiaozhou Bay undersea tunnel was obtained by posting questionnaires on the Internet. Based on whether there were traffic accidents in undersea tunnel, the drivers with undersea tunnel driving experience were divided into accident group and control group. Through the single factor analysis of the data, it is found that drinking, bad driving habits, having traffic accident experience, speeding and other thirteen factors have an important impact on the occurrence of traffic accidents undersea tunnel. Multivariate analysis was carried out on thirteen factors with significant influence, and a model for predicting the probability of accidents in undersea tunnels was established. Five influencing factors of speeding, the following distance is too small, carelessness, illegal lane change and having traffic accidents experience entered the model, with OR values of 7.11(2.94-18.90), 2.35(1.17-4.08), 3.99(1.23-7.45), 2.68(1.15-6.39) and 3.95(1.78-6.11). The occurrence of accidents in undersea tunnel is related to the length of the tunnel and the traffic flow. For an undersea tunnel with a length of 7 km and an average daily traffic flow of 50000 vehicles, the number of daily traffic accidents is 1.96. The driver’s violations and the driver’s carelessness are the main factors in undersea tunnel traffic accident. In order to improve the traffic safety of undersea tunnel, government departments should step up enforcement against traffic violations. In addition, the undersea tunnel management department needs to consider taking measures to improve the harsh and monotonous environment in the tunnel. This study provides an empirical basis for the prevention of traffic accidents in undersea tunnels.
Keywords: Undersea tunnel, traffic accidents, influencing factors, multivariate analysis, traffic accident probability model.